A week is a long time in politics. And an eye-catching one too, depending on who it involves.

The announcement by newly appointed Minister for Finance Jack Chambers on Thursday's RTÉ's Morning Ireland that Budget 2025 will be brought forward by seven days has sent Leinster House speculation over an autumn general election into overdrive.

And for once there are clear, legitimate reasons why.

While Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Greens have been quick to officially downplay the significance of the date change, all three coalition parties have confirmed they expect to have all of their general election candidates selected by autumn.

The budget date move also comes after a healthy local and European elections performance from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil which, coupled with Sinn Féin's apparent recent downturn, has added to claims Government should strike while the iron is - if not hot - then at least lukewarm.

And, crucially, moving the budget date forward by a week does - in theory at least - open up a genuine early November window to hold a general election before the short days and dark nights of winter, should Taoiseach Simon Harris want to use it, with dates like 1 November and 15 November the focus of much debate.

Officially of course, the Government parties are dismissing all of the above, arguing that people are simply misinterpreting the earlier than usual budget date.

Indeed, one Government source responded to speculation by telling RTÉ "there could be a rumour it's [the general election] on 25 December and people here would believe it".

But despite the attempt to downplay the current whispered conversations in dark corners, few in Leinster House are willing to specifically rule out the increasing possibility of an autumn general election - with one Government politician privately saying none of his colleagues will be planning a weekend away this October or November.

Official denials

Jack Chambers labelled the new budget timeline as a 'natural date'

It's always worth keeping an ear to political speculation when there is an official denial.

And the budget/general election date speculation already has just that.

Officially the Government has dismissed the rumours and intrigue surrounding the earlier than usual budget as little more than a classic case of wild political speculation in the run-up to the Dáil summer recess next week.

Moments after telling RTÉ's Morning Ireland of the earlier than usual budget date, Minister for Finance Jack Chambers labelled the new timeline as a "natural date" due to related European commitments.

While the budget was previously due to be held on 8 October, Minister Chambers explained, both he and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe are also meant to attend an EU ECOFIN meeting of economics and finance ministers and related side meetings in Luxembourg that evening and the following day.

And, he said, the fact the meeting will be followed by Ireland having to submit the budget to the European Commission on 15 October means the new 1 October budget date just makes sense, as "a period of time" is needed for the Dáil and Seanad to agree the finance and social welfare bills which enact the budget measures.

Hours after hearing Minister Chambers tell the nation that despite the budget date change the Government is "absolutely committed" to running its full term, Taoiseach Simon Harris repeated the official position.

Speaking with reporters at the American Chamber of Commerce's annual Independence Day event, the Taoiseach rejected suggestions he might be looking for a touch of independence himself, saying the ECOFIN date means it "makes sense" to move the budget.

Describing some of the Dáil comments about the date change as "theatrics", he said "what people are much more interested in is the substance of the budget", again repeating that the Government plan is for the coalition to stay in power until next spring.

Unanswered questions

The official Government line has a certain logic to it, of course.

But, given a key part of its explanation for moving the budget date is the ECOFIN meeting, some questions do still arise.

While the ECOFIN meeting is of clear importance, some suggest the apparent essential need for Minister for Finance Jack Chambers to attend may have been slightly overplayed.

In 2019, a similar schedule clash occurred between the budget and the ECOFIN summit, at a time when Brexit meant Ireland's role in the EU was far higher on the continental agenda.

But, despite this focus on Ireland, the then minister for finance Paschal Donohoe remained in the Dáil, with the then minister of state Michael D'Arcy attending the meeting instead and attendees somehow bravely battling on without the more senior minister.

Secondly, when speaking with reporters on Thursday, Taoiseach Simon Harris was keen to say the ECOFIN meeting date has been "long known among party leaders".

So given that is the case, why not change the budget date sooner?

If the schedule clash was known, why allow Minister Chambers' predecessor Michael McGrath to repeatedly say in recent weeks there would be no early budget, before an early budget is announced days after Mr McGrath was confirmed as Ireland's next European commissioner?

And how did the usually so detail-orientated Mr McGrath not spot it himself?

Opposition scepticism

Pearse Doherty said the Government is 'taking the public for fools' (file pic RollingNews.ie)

The polite version is that the opposition is not buying the budget date change the Government is selling.

"It's a cock and bull story," Sinn Féin's finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty exclaimed in the Dáil on Thursday, before telling Minister Chambers the Government is "taking the public for fools".

Deputy Doherty said that during his 14 years as finance spokesperson the September tax receipts have always been "crucial to the formation of the budget", and told his counterpart not to pretend the budget date change is "for anything other than to potentially pave the way for an early election".

Gloves firmly off, Minister Chambers responded that Sinn Féin's "dismissal" of the importance of the ECOFIN meeting shows its "Euro-scepticism".

But it is scepticism of a different kind that many on the opposition benches, not just Sinn Féin, have on their minds.

A week ago, The Sunday Times reported that Fine Gael will have all of its general election candidates selected by the end of September, a plan confirmed by a Fine Gael spokesperson who told RTÉ:

"With the conclusion of the local and European elections, the Fine Gael executive council has requested that all Fine Gael Dáil selection conventions take place by 22 September."

The spokesperson continued that this is simply to ensure that "new candidates have ample opportunity to prepare, receive training and build profile in advance of the general election, which is due on or before 22 March, 2025".

While it may simply be a second case of sensible, practical planning, senior Fianna Fáil figures have also confirmed their party expects to have all of its candidate selected around September, saying that while no selection deadline has been set the party is working through around three constituencies a week.

And although it is not beyond the realms of possibility that a hat-trick of sensible worst case scenario planning may have naturally broken out across all three coalition partners, a Green Party spokesperson told RTÉ on Friday that "we plan to complete selection by the autumn to give candidates time to prepare for an election next year".

One coalition figure stressed the planning process is just something parties in Government and opposition do, joking that no date went around Government Buildings suggesting when candidates should be ready by.

But for opposition parties already suspicious of the sincerity of the Government's repeated insistence it plans to see out its full term in office, there is increasing evidence an earlier election date could be on the cards.

Save the date(s)

At the very least, all agree that the subtle but potentially significant budget timing change means general election date options now exist that were not always so clearly there.

For many in Leinster House, those options now specifically include the period of Friday 1 November to Friday 15 November.

Legislation governing elections in Ireland means a general election campaign must last no less than 18 days and no more than 25 days after the race is called.

The 1 October new budget date would, so the theory goes, give Government time to bring the finance and social welfare bills enacting the budget through the Oireachtas debates; followed by a period of reflection; and then a potential calling of a general election while some brightness is still in the evenings - an important part of any decision, as any politician will attest.

Friday 25 October could be an option, but given it is part of the October bank holiday weekend that seems unlikely.

Similarly, Friday 8 November could also be in play, but given the allure of the ballot boxes would be competing with the Ireland-New Zealand rugby test match that evening, that may also be tackled into touch.

1 November and 15 November, though, are more appealing for many inside and outside Leinster House, including former Fine Gael minister-turned pundit Ivan Yates, who said on his radio programme on Thursday what is occurring is "the clearest sign that you could ever get that they are actively planning the election campaign".

Crucially, the argument goes, an election during this period would also provide some hope that government formation talks could potentially be concluded by Christmas, with the risk of a mandate to govern being replaced by a lump of coal by frustrated voters if talks break down.

Like most discussions in politics, it is for now at least all just informed speculation.

It is, of course, not impossible for the Government to still last all the way until March 2025.

And it is also possible that the Taoiseach and his ministerial colleagues are being entirely honest and truthful when they insist the plan is still to hold the general election in spring next year.

But realistically, few in Leinster House now believe that will occur, with one politician privately saying when asked about the Government's spring election plan insistence, that the plan is only the plan, until it is no longer the plan.