Ursula von der Leyen is due to address the European Parliament in Strasbourg this morning, as she fights to hold on to her job.
At 9am CET (8am Irish time), she will set out her vision for the next five years, hoping to solidify her support.
In truth, the Commission President has been lobbying intensely for weeks in the run up to this afternoon's crunch vote.
Having secured the European Council nomination, Dr von der Leyen is the only candidate and must win a majority, or 361 votes, to hold on to her seat.
In 2019, she won the election by a margin of just nine votes, so the question on everybody's lips is, will that margin shrink or grow?
Three groupings which outwardly support von der Leyen; the EPP (her own group), the Socialists and
Democrats and Renew Europe, together account for 401 votes, so she should be a shoo-in, right?
Not so simple.
Unlike the party system in the Dáil, groupings in the European Parliament generally don't employ the whip, meaning MEPs are not told to vote in a certain way.
And to add to the intrigue, it's a secret ballot, so in theory, MEPs could promise to vote for the Commission President to win a second term and then vote against her.
However one member of staff I spoke to said they felt this characterisation was unfair, because politicians were not in the habit of saying one thing and doing another.
It is worth noting too that abstentions are considered a vote against the candidate.
Europe Correspondent with Euronews, Shona Murray, says "it's not a guarantee she'll get in, and explosive if she doesn't".
As Ursula von der Leyen is the only candidate, a new name would have to be found and agreed upon, and there's already division over von der Leyen's selection by the Council. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban voted against her, and Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni abstained.
Ms Murray explains that Ms von der Leyen is going in with potentially 400 votes, but they are not all guaranteed.
However, she says Ms von der Leyen could still do it and has been meeting with a lot of the groupings in the parliament.
She believes the Greens will clinch it, should most of their 53 candidates vote for von der Leyen.
It would appear the Greens are favourable to voting for Ms von der Leyen, though are awaiting guidelines to be issued by the Commission President before taking a final decision.
A spokesperson for the group said the atmosphere in the negotiations has been good.
One grouping where Ms von der Leyen's support has eroded is the liberal Renew group, home to Fianna Fáil and French President Emmanuel Macron's coalition of MEPs.
But Renew lost 25 seats, more than 10% of its MEPs in last month's election, and Mr Macron's members came in distant second place in France - leading to his ill-fated gamble on legislative elections in France.
In the run up to the European Elections, Fianna Fáil's MEPs, including Barry Andrews, were vocal in their opposition to Ursula von der Leyen.
Mr Andrews repeatedly said he would not support her reelection and pointed to her "silence" on the accusation of genocide against Israel in its war on Gaza.
A week after Hamas' coordinated attacks on Israel in which around 1,200 Israelis were murdered, Ms von der Leyen pledged her support to Benjamin Netanyahu.
This was seen as overstepping her role as Commission President, as she had not been mandated to speak on behalf of the EU, and resulted in condemnation by top EU officials and in a letter of concern being signed by over 800 commission staff.
Since then, Ms von der Leyen has been seen as working hard to secure humanitarian aid for Gaza and has been less equivocal in her support for Israel.
But will it be enough for MEPs who support Palestine?
Swedish MEP, Evin Incir, is with the Socialists and Democrats group.
They are supporting Ms von der Leyen, but Ms Incir says "I think both von der Leyen as Commission President and even Roberta Metsola as President of the European Parliament, both of them from the center-right EPP group, have acted in an unacceptable way.
"While I think it was important that they showed support for the Israeli victims of the horrific terrorist attacks conducted by Hamas, I would have, and still want, to see equal support for the Palestinian people.
"Almost 40,000 innocent people have been murdered by Israeli forces and von der Leyen is sitting silent right now."
During the week, Ms von der Leyen met with the Renew group, ostensibly to secure their support.
Fianna Fáil MEPs had a list of requests for the Commission President, including an apology for meeting with Mr Netanyahu on 13 October, consideration of the Occupied Territories Bill and the suspension of the Israeli trade agreement with the EU.
However they said that in a one-hour speech, she did not mention Gaza once.
Billy Kelleher, First Vice President of Renew, said: "President von der Leyen's inability to call out or criticise the actions of Israel in Gaza, and her seemingly unconditional support for Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is now subject to an ICC Arrest Warrant for his actions, mean I cannot support her re-election."
Under President von der Leyen's watch, the European Union is no longer seen as an honest broker in the Middle East Peace Process. This has affected its ability to work towards peace and stability in the region.
To complicate matters somewhat, the Irish Government does support von der Leyen, with Micheál Martin having said in June there would be "ongoing engagement" with his party's MEPs on their support, or lack thereof.
That line on "ongoing engagement" was repeated last Thursday by Fianna Fáil's Deputy leader, Jack Chambers.
But that engagement has come to naught.
Billy Kelleher said: "Over the past four weeks, I have listened to and engaged with colleagues in Fianna Fáil who I trust and respect.
"However, I still find myself back at the same place - not having confidence in her as the Commission President."
So that is four Fianna Fáil MEPs voting against Ursula von der Leyen, along with their new Renew colleague, Michael McNamara.
Ciaran Mullooly, who has also joined Renew, met with Ms von der Leyen last night in a meeting in which he says he made several demands regarding Palestine.
The Midlands-Northwest MEP says he told her that "in the light of the deaths and suffering endured by the Palestinian people, the European Union has the duty and the means to act to prevent Israel's crimes in Gaza and to reduce the extent of human suffering".
Mr Mullooly said he would wait to hear the speech before making up his mind.
One perhaps unlikely kingmaker is Giorgia Meloni.
While she abstained from supporting Ms von der Leyen in the council, the outgoing president did meet with Ms Meloni's right-wing ECR grouping on Tuesday.
That meeting is said to have gone smoothly. A source said the Polish MEPs in the ECR will vote against Ms von der Leyen, so will the French and Romanian MEPs, while the Italian members might be favourable.
Those numbers will help and are not entirely surprising when you consider the meetings between Ms von der Leyen and Ms Meloni at the fringes of the G7 in Italy earlier this month.
Not unsurprisingly, Fine Gael members of the EPP are voting for Ms von der Leyen.
Maria Walsh says that it is important to have continuity, pointing to a time of geopolitical upheaval. "We need a balanced, pragmatic approach," she said.
Her party colleague, Seán Kelly, is visibly concerned about the vote, which he says will be tight.
He points out that should Ms von der Leyen fail in her bid to win a second term, all other jobs in the commission are thrown into doubt.
He believes a new commission would not even be in place by Christmas, handing "[Viktor] Orban a free rein for the entire presidency".
Hungary currently holds the six-month rotating presidency of the EU.
Mr Kelly said that he cannot understand the hatred of Ms von der Leyen, pointing out that "in Europe, a lot of countries have a particular sensitivity to Israel, because of their history".
He acknowledges she "made a mistake going to Israel, because it wasn't her function, but look at the context, she's German."
Mr Kelly said that it is not an easy situation, and points to the huge effort President von der Leyen has made since, in securing aid for Palestinians, and Gazans in particular.
He said she organised 26 aid flights into Gaza, which "seems to count for nothing".
Both Fine Gael/EPP members point to Ms von der Leyen's past success in relation to Covid-19, to supporting businesses, to maintaining energy supply in the wake of sanctions against Russia, and not least her support to Ireland on Brexit.
In a case of awkward timing, the European Courts of Justice ruled yesterday that the commission had not been transparent enough with the public on contract negotiations with Pfizer about the Covid vaccine.
"The commission did not give the public sufficiently wide access to the purchase agreements for Covid-19 vaccines," it said in a statement.
Some MEPs have been highly critical of the commission's handling of the multibillion-euro contracts, and in particular for not disclosing text messages between Ms von der Leyen and the boss of drugmaker Pfizer about one of the contracts.
The commission says that she did not keep the messages.
A source in the Greens said they did not think the ruling would have any impact on today's vote, but was a matter of checks between European institutions and transparency in terms of future procurement.
And what of the tricky position of Michael McGrath, soon-to-be Ireland's Commissioner?
The former finance minister is hoping for a portfolio that matches his experience, but if his Fianna Fáil colleagues vote against Ursula von der Leyen, who is responsible for choosing the European commissioners, could that stand against him?
Maria Walsh says, "of course there are politics at play," when it comes to handing out the top jobs.
"Business is done in large groups and decisions have to have consequences," she says.
"Our commissioner needs a portfolio that is strong and is in rooms where the big decisions are being made, unfortunately if you don't vote for the potential boss, that has impacts."
Outgoing commissioner Mairead McGuinness says if President von der Leyen is successful, she will formally write to member states asking for their nominees as commissioner and is likely to ask for a woman and a man.
She then will meet with the candidates in September.
Commissioner McGuinness says: "It is not uncommon for some commissioners to be rejected by the Parliament or called back for a second hearing ... and there is always strong competition among member states for what are considered significant portfolios.
"Several factors affect the allocation of portfolios - including the success of the different political parties in the European elections (Renew is now the fifth largest grouping where it was previously third), the size of the member state, if the nominee is a returning commissioner or has experience at European level and the area of expertise of the nominee.
"We should not forget the President’s commitment to gender balance.
"Michael McGrath is an experienced candidate for the post," Ms McGuinness said.
However, she also points out that "all countries will want their nominee to get a significant portfolio".
Ms Walsh asks if not Ms von der Leyen, "Who are they voting for?
"We've been clear all along, but they're not suggesting a name."
If Ms von der Leyen doesn't get the vote this afternoon, that will be the question on everyone's lips as she cannot run again.
