Analysis: saints, witches and sin all played a part in how our ancestors predicted the weather
By Helen Parish, University of Reading
On July 15th 971, the bones of St Swithin were removed from their resting place on the order of Aethelwold, Bishop of Winchester, and placed in a shrine inside the cathedral. The saint, it seemed, did not approve. A violent storm followed, and rain fell for 40 days. And from that story came the belief that the weather on July 15th predicted a summer of sun or rain.
St Swithin's day if thou dost rain'
For forty days it will remain;
St Swithin's day if thou be fair,
For forty days will rain na mair.
The weather this summer has been unpredictable, but largely overcast and wet. Technology might give us access to minute-by-minute forecasts, but how humans read the skies has long been shaped by a heady mix of meteorology, magic, and miracles.
The origins of the legend of St Swithin are questionable. Early sources suggest that St Swithin himself requested the removal of his bones to the cathedral. Why then would the saint stir up a storm? The first written record tying St Swithin to weather forecasting is linked to a torrential downpour in 1315, some 500 years after his bones were moved, and the rhyme above dates from some three centuries after that.
We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
From RTÉ lyric fm, The Rain Box is a 2017 rainy tale and a collaboration between RTÉ Lyric FM’s Composer in Residence, Sebastian Adams, and writer and broadcaster Jools Gilson
Has it ever rained for 40 consecutive days after July 15th? Not according to weather records. The closest it might have got was in 1924 when (according to the Guinness Book of World Records) 30 of the 40 days after St Swithin's day were wet, but 13.5 hours of sunshine were recorded on July 15th.
There might, however, be a glimmer of truth in the legend. Summer weather here is shaped by the position of the jet stream. A northerly position in early July will make a drier, sunnier summer more likely, but a southerly position will often usher in a period of unsettled weather. St Swithin's day could well be a useful barometer.
If St Swithin is responsible, he's not alone. Other saints whose feast days fall in June and July are also associated with weather forecasting. Rain on St Gervase's day on June 19th predicts 40 days of wet weather, while a damp feast of the Seven Sleepers (in Germany, Siebenschläfertag) on June 27th will usher in seven weeks of rain.
We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
From the Met Éireann podcast, how sayings around the weather, from red skies at night to cows lying down, have developed and if they have a meteorological leg to stand on
St Swithin's legend is just one part of a complex picture of human interaction with the weather. Snow and sun, hot and cold, are written into our society, culture and language. And the skies are as a blank canvas on which humans paint their own beliefs and fears.
Punishing sin
Current concerns about climate change differ from those of our ancestors. Smaller local changes in weather were often of more immediate importance because of the threat that they posed, but also because of the message that they carried.
That message was often from God, an interventionist deity who used nature – storms, floods, drought – to communicate with humanity. The Bible contains ample precedents: when his people would not repent, God warned Noah that he would "bring a flood of waters upon the earth".
Churches responded to both successful harvests and natural calamities with prayer and fasting. The English Book of Common Prayer (1549) attributed a "plague of rain and waters" to human sin. And in 1598, a preacher from Sussex, in the south of England, declared that famine, floods and unseasonable weather were "a sermon of repentance".
Raising tempests
Weather was where the natural and the supernatural met. But it was not just God and his saints who could manipulate the weather.
A "mini ice age" in Europe (c.1300-1850) led to severe winters and cold, wet summers in which harvests failed. In these conditions, plague, famine and fear combined to fuel the belief that unnatural weather was the work of witches.
Theologians and demonologists described how witches stir up storms, raise tempests, "solidify springs of water and melt mountains". The link between witchcraft and weather was cemented in the famous book, the Hammer of Witches (Malleus Maleficarum).
The idea was repeated in printed pamphlets and news, in sermons, and in the accusations that neighbour made against neighbour. In 1562, storms swept across Europe leaving panic in their wake. In the German town of Wiesensteig more than 60 witches were burned at the stake.
In a well-documented and high profile case of weather magic in 1589, the Scottish king James VI was caught in a storm in the North Sea, and more than 100 suspected witches were arrested in the area surrounding North Berwick. Many were tortured, found guilty and executed for witchcraft and for treason. So blame witches, your sins or even saints for the weather July 15th brings and the summer that predicts.
Follow RTÉ Brainstorm on WhatsApp and Instagram for more stories and updates
Helen Parish is a Professor in History at the University of Reading. This article was originally published by The Conversation.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
